The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and the Shift Of Tail (SOT) index

The EFI provides specialised forecast guidance for anomalous, extreme, or severe weather events. In this lesson you will learn how EFI, SOT and M-climate are built.

Ensemble Forecasting: Sources of forecast uncertainty (introduction)

Ensembles are run to account for uncertainties in initial conditions. This lesson explores the sources of error in NWP, how they are quantified, and how ensembles are evaluated.

The ECMWF Extended range forecasts: Introduction

Extended range forecasts provide outlooks up to 46 days. This lesson examines sources of predictability, seasonal forecast skill and the ECMWF extended range forecasting system.

Forecast Jumpiness: An introduction

There are times when consecutive forecasts can 'jump' significantly. This lesson will discuss the ways in which forecast jumpiness can appear and how it can be mitigated.

Seasonal forecasting

Seasonal forecasting is useful in planning for many sectors. This lesson will explore seasonal predictability, how numerical seasonal forecast models work and their outputs.