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Ensemble Forecasting: Sources of forecast uncertainty (introduction)

Ensembles are run to account for uncertainties in initial conditions. This lesson explores the sources of error in NWP, how they are quantified, and how ensembles are evaluated.

Last updated: 4 December 2025
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40 minutes

Single module

What you'll learn

  • Sources of forecast uncertainty
  • How ensembles quantify forecast uncertainty
  • How to extract information from the ensemble and evaluate performance
  • Communicating uncertainty

Topic

Forecasting

Course Content

  • Ensemble Forecasting: Sources of forecast uncertainty (introduction)

Tags

  • Uncertainty
  • ensembles

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