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Representing model uncertainty with stochastic physics

Explore sources of uncertainty in NWP and how this is represented in the IFS using stochastic physics.


Last updated: 16 December 2025
Enrol now! Enrolled students: 60+

Single module

What you'll learn

  • Sources of model uncertainty
  • How model uncertainty is represented in ensemble forecasts, and in particular in the IFS
  • How process-level model uncertainty is accounted for, including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterisation Tendencies scheme

Topics

  • Numerical weather prediction

Course Content

  • Using stochastic physics to represent model uncertainty

Tags

  • ensembles
  • IFS
  • uncertainty

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