Learn about uncertainties and chaotic behaviour in NWP, why ensembles are needed and how they are used at ECMWF.
Fundamentals
40 minutes
Single module
Learn about sources of error in NWP, how they are quantified, and how ensembles are evaluated.
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Learn about the ways in which forecast jumpiness can appear and how it can be mitigated.
This lesson covers key processes in ice and mixed-phase clouds and precipitation, and parametrization uncertainties.
Explore the key microphysical and warm-phase processes of cloud and precipitation parametrisation and their use in NWP.
Learn about the unique role of snow in forecasting, from short-range to seasonal time scales.