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Sources of Uncertainty

Learn about uncertainties and chaotic behaviour in NWP, why ensembles are needed and how they are used at ECMWF.


Last updated: 16 December 2025
Enrol now! Enrolled students: 100+

Fundamentals

40 minutes

Single module

What you'll learn

  • Sources of forecast uncertainty and chaotic behaviour
  • Ensembles as a tool for capturing uncertainty and probabilistic prediction
  • ECMWF model setup, initial conditions

Topics

  • Numerical weather prediction

Course Content

  • Sources of Uncertainty

Tags

  • ensembles
  • parameterisation
  • uncertainty

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Self enrolment (Student)
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