Skip to main content

The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and the Shift Of Tail (SOT) index

Learn how EFI, SOT and Model Climate are built and provide forecast guidance for extreme, or severe weather events.


Last updated: 16 December 2025
Enrol now! Enrolled students: 500+

Fundamentals

25 minutes

Single module

What you'll learn

  • How the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and the Shift Of Tail (SOT) index and Model Climate (M-climate) are built, and how they relate to one another
  • Limitations of these methods
  • Case studies

Prerequisites

  • Experience in meteorology and forecasting
  • Basic statistics (probability distributions)

Topics

  • Forecasting

Description

This lesson introduces the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), which provides specialised guidance for identifying anomalous, extreme, or severe weather events. You will learn how the EFI, the Shift of Tails (SOT), and Model Climate are constructed, and how they relate to one another.

Course Content

  • The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and the Shift Of Tail (SOT) index

Tags

  • ensembles
  • extreme events
  • products

Start this course

Self enrolment (Student)
Self enrolment (Student)
Back